NFL Value – Bet Big Underdogs

The ‘Sharp Edge Approach’ is clear – bet against the popular team and there is value.  In the NFL it is easy to determine the popular side – see who is a big favourite with the point spread, then bet the underdog taking the points. Studying data from 2008-2011 (4 years), there were over 1000 regular season games and 156 with … Read More

The Trouble with Teasers

The Trouble with Teasers Generally speaking, betting teasers is not a good value proposition.* A teaser is a specific type of bet where you get extra points, but must pay extra odds. The most popular teaser is in the NFL, where a 2 team, 6 pt teaser requires the same -110 odds, or VIG as a normal bet.  But, 2 … Read More

NFL: Halftime Dynamics – O/U

Remember as a child when your father split a chocolate bar in half between you and your brother, you always got the SMALLER HALF? Without going into too much detail why I turned out the way I did, the bigger question remains: How can two halves not equal a whole? Well, this phenomenon doesn’t just exist in chocolate bar splits. … Read More

When Hedging Your Bets Makes Sense

HEDGING YOUR BETS – 3 TIMES TO DO IT Note: This is part 2.  I previously explained why hedging your bets is usually a bad financial decision. You are usually paying vig/juice/commission twice and are often getting the inferior side of the bet.  In the long run you are paying extra fees for no reason. However, there are 3 situations … Read More

NFL Betting: Dog or pass, Under or pass

Everyone loves betting the NFL.  This means that unlike other sports, where sharp money drives line movements, the LV books often set and move NFL lines based on casual bettors or public sentiment. Casual bettors love betting favourites (they know the Patriots/Brady are better then the Jets/whoever plays QB) and ignore the value of getting points (2% of the time … Read More

Hedging your Bets – Bad Financial Management

Note: This is part 1. Part 2 explores 3 specific situations where hedging may be prudent  We are all happy to be in the following 2 situations: 1: We bet an NFL team +3.5 and they are up 17-3 at the half and are 6 point underdogs in the second half. 2: We bet a 3 team parlay, won the 1st … Read More

There are NO LOCKS

“Give me a winner” – that’s all the desperate gambler is every looking for.  That one game he can chase to get even and he will NEVER get so stuck again.  Never!!!  Until the next time… We all have friends who hammer super big favourites, especially when they are stuck for the week, figuring they are due to win.  They often … Read More

NFL Value – Small Road Dogs

Looking at ‘close’ games, where the home team is favored between 1-5.5 points against the spread, there have been 333 games over 4 years (2008-11) and the ROAD team has covered over 54% of the time, more than often enough to beat VIG and turn a 1.5-2% profit margin on top of that (strong margin for a sports gambler). Why? … Read More

Las Vegas Casinos – In for TROUBLE!

In an attempt to re-write history and continue growing, Las Vegas casinos have decided to implement skill based games.  You can now bet on your own skills in Frogger.   Applications are also underway for full fledged licenses & games of skill. I understand WHY Las Vegas is doing this – millenials are NOT flocking to casinos and find slots … Read More

NBA – Horrid Officiating Accepted

Adam Silver really put his foot in his mouth when commenting about NBA officiating last spring. http://www.espn.com/nba/playoffs/2016/story/_/id/15737936/2016-nba-playoffs-adam-silver-says-reports-show-referees-90-percent-correct He thought this was a positive spin – refs getting 90% of calls correct is pretty good right?   No!  90% right means 10% wrong and in the NBA with over 1 officiating call per minute, that translates into 50 calls per game … Read More