Thursday night’s NFL game has the stars aligned for a great value bet. I often advocate betting the under especially in primetime games. Casual bettors tend to wager on the over because it is fun to cheer for points. This inflates the total so the value is the other way, on the under. This advantage is especially true Thursday night for three reasons:
One, it’s a primetime game. A Thursday night, high profile game brings out even more casual bettors wagering on the over.
Two, it’s a Thursday game. NFL teams play once a week because it is really hard on the body. Players tend to rest Monday and Tuesday, then spend four days planning innovative strategies for the next week. When the game is Thursday, teams have a day to plan. Without sophisticated planning, creative offensive plays do not happen, advantage under.
Three, these teams are coming off super high scoring performances. The Chiefs scored 48 vs the Raiders while the Chargers scored 37 vs the Giants. I put almost no weight in last weeks performance, but casual bettors do. They see both teams putting up 35+ and are faster to bet the over.
Sports-books understand what your friends just saw. They know that it is a primetime game with two high scoring teams, so they INFLATE the total by 1-2 points to sucker the suckers to overpay for their over. Advantage under bettors. When this game lands on 50 and especially 51, two good numbers (think finals like 27-24, or 30-20) you win, betting under, when 50+ points were scored in an NFL game. Good bet for you!
NOTE: I’m 2-2 to date betting ATS @yardbarker