NFL Value Bets: Parleh video clips

I finished the regular season at 7-4 betting the NFL ATS (against the spread) @theparleh Jan 9: Dolphins +6.5 vs Patriots – WIN Dec 19: Giants +10.5 vs Cowboys – LOSS Dec 12: Bills +3.5 vs Tampa – LOSS Dec 5: Chargers +3 vs Bengals – WIN Nov 28: Titans +6.5 vs Patriots – LOSS Nov 21: Colts +7.5 vs … Read More

NFL Value Bet: Raiders +9.5 v Chiefs

This Sunday, the Raiders are a strong value bet +9.5 points against the Chiefs.   The bettors are excited as the Chiefs are hot and have won five in a row.   However, Mahomes & company are NOT the super offensive powerhouse they’ve been in years past.   In fact, they’ve only scored 23+ points once during their five game winning streak.   Winning … Read More

College Football Value Bet: Michigan +8.5

What a great rivalry game Saturday!   Ohio St is an 8.5 point favourite at Michigan.   Both teams are ranked in the top 5 and the winner should* make the college football playoff. Why is Ohio St such a big favourite on the road?    Because they are on fire!   They just annihilated #7 Michigan St by 47 points, after dismantling … Read More

Thanksgiving Value Bet: Under 45.5 Bills v Saints

The best NFL game this Thanksgiving is the prime time affairs between the Bills and Saints – two solid teams in playoff contention.  The over-under for the game is 45.5 meaning a total of 45.5 points are expected to be scored.   A bettor can choose to go under (winning if 45 or less total points are scored), or over.   Either … Read More

The Value of Rodgers

Rarely can you conduct an experiment to determine value in the real world in real time.   However, we now know EXACTLY the value of Packers Star quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are at the Chiefs and were a small dog and 49% to win the game.   Then, Rodgers was announced out with COVID.   The game was pulled and came back … Read More

Kawhi is Toronto’s Third Legend

Sunday night Kawhi did what every kid dreams about – he hit a buzzer beater in the deciding game so his team could win it.   It is rare.   Kawhi’s buzzer beater was the first in a game 7 in NBA history. However, Toronto sports fans are blessed.   Twice previously in the last 30 years, we’ve walked off as winners in … Read More

NBA – Horrid Officiating Accepted

Adam Silver really put his foot in his mouth when commenting about NBA officiating last spring. http://www.espn.com/nba/playoffs/2016/story/_/id/15737936/2016-nba-playoffs-adam-silver-says-reports-show-referees-90-percent-correct He thought this was a positive spin – refs getting 90% of calls correct is pretty good right?   No!  90% right means 10% wrong and in the NBA with over 1 officiating call per minute, that translates into 50 calls per game … Read More

Toronto Sports Resurgence

Toronto plays professionally in 4 North American sports – MLB, MLS, NBA, and the NHL. The playoffs started in the NBA & NHL, Toronto is playing in both. The season is just underway in MLB & MLSE, Toronto made the playoffs in BOTH SPORTS last year. That’s 4 for 4! 4 teams, 4 sports, 4 playoff appearances – in ONE SEASON … Read More

Blue Jays AWFUL 1-run record is NOT bad luck

Bill James is WRONG.   MLB stats geeks are WRONG.   Run differential does NOT always predict baseball success over time. Consensus in MLB right now is that if your run differential is very positive (you score a lot more runs than you give up), you are a strong team that will win long term.  1 run losses are mostly … Read More

Flawed James’ Pythagorean Theorem – Offensive Teams Beware!

Bill James developed a theory that run differential (squared) would long term approximate a MLB’s teams win %.   Appears to make sense – long term, if you score a lot more runs than you give up, you will win more games than you lose. HOWEVER, there is a BIG EXCEPTION – strong offensive teams.  If you score a lot … Read More