Hedging your Bets – Bad Financial Management

Note: This is part 1. Part 2 explores 3 specific situations where hedging may be prudent  We are all happy to be in the following 2 situations: 1: We bet an NFL team +3.5 and they are up 17-3 at the half and are 6 point underdogs in the second half. 2: We bet a 3 team parlay, won the 1st … Read More

Sportsbetting in Canada & Across the Globe

The following lecture summarizes the Sportsbetting market globally and compares it to the Canadian Sportsbetting market.  It was presented at the Osgoode Professional Gaming Law Development Program by Harley Redlick & Jordan Gnat. Minute 49 of the video starts Harley’s explanation of how he exploited OLG’s ProLine inefficiency. Accompanying Power Point/support materials

There are NO LOCKS

“Give me a winner” – that’s all the desperate gambler is every looking for.  That one game he can chase to get even and he will NEVER get so stuck again.  Never!!!  Until the next time… We all have friends who hammer super big favourites, especially when they are stuck for the week, figuring they are due to win.  They often … Read More

NFL Value – Small Road Dogs

Looking at ‘close’ games, where the home team is favored between 1-5.5 points against the spread, there have been 333 games over 4 years (2008-11) and the ROAD team has covered over 54% of the time, more than often enough to beat VIG and turn a 1.5-2% profit margin on top of that (strong margin for a sports gambler). Why? … Read More

Las Vegas Casinos – In for TROUBLE!

In an attempt to re-write history and continue growing, Las Vegas casinos have decided to implement skill based games.  You can now bet on your own skills in Frogger.   Applications are also underway for full fledged licenses & games of skill. I understand WHY Las Vegas is doing this – millenials are NOT flocking to casinos and find slots … Read More

NBA – Horrid Officiating Accepted

Adam Silver really put his foot in his mouth when commenting about NBA officiating last spring. http://www.espn.com/nba/playoffs/2016/story/_/id/15737936/2016-nba-playoffs-adam-silver-says-reports-show-referees-90-percent-correct He thought this was a positive spin – refs getting 90% of calls correct is pretty good right?   No!  90% right means 10% wrong and in the NBA with over 1 officiating call per minute, that translates into 50 calls per game … Read More

Its a Loss…. Sweet….

“Dave” was thrilled.  It was Sunday night and he was down $300 for the week betting sports.   Weird.  He was happy being down sports betting?  Was he a glutton for punishment?  Possibly.  But Dave was right to be happy and had adopted the Sharp Approach. Dave was stuck $900 Sunday morning as a few strong hockey plays didn’t go his … Read More

Additional Commandment of Sports Betting

The Sharp Approach – Setting Your Own Point Spread and Tracking Line Movements During the Week To break even (and possibly turn a small profit) as a sports bettor you must at least follow my 5×2 Commandments of Successful Sports Betting. 1a: Thou shall focus on winning money, not games 1b: Thou shall focus on the long term 2a: Thou … Read More

General Value Bets: MLB underdogs @ 3-2 odds

Another Sharp Edge Picks article outlines some of the merits of betting baseball: http://sharpedgepicks.com/why-bet-on-baseball/  Namely, a ton of games, reduced vig, and quick turnaround times (allowing sportsbooks to make errors). So why focus on 3-2 moneyline underdogs in baseball?  With OVER 90% of teams winning between 64-97 (40-60%) of their games every year*, getting 3-2 odds is strong.  Of course, … Read More

Sportsbetting for a Living – Volatility

Sportsbetting for a Living: Fine Line Between ‘Professional’ and Tourist They say sports gambling is a very tough way to make an easy living.  It is so true.  In fact, due to volatility in betting, it could take years to determine if you are indeed a ‘professional’ or have a significant edge.  The example below illustrates the point. Volatility: A … Read More