Patriots are the super bet

Super Bowl LII could go down as the strangest lead up in the history of the game.   One team has won five Super Bowls with the same greatest-of-all-time combination of coach and quarterback while the other has a young coach and a backup quarterback.   Yet, the public is betting and excited about the second team.

What?   How is that possible?   Because of their last game.   Betting Commandment 2 is clear – see what your friends and writers are doing and do the opposite.  Before the championship games, oddsmakers predicted that the Patriots would be seven point favourites if they played the Eagles in the Super Bowl.   What is the line now?   Four points.   Why?   Bettors just saw the Patriots struggle with Jacksonville as the Eagles crushed the Vikings.   Moving the line from seven to four points because of one game is obscene as it translates into roughly a 10% better win rate (i.e, bettors are saying that before the championship games they thought the Patriots would win the Super Bowl 75% of the time and now their chances are 65%).

Rarely do you get a chance to bet the team with the best quarterback and coach while fading public sentiment.   Jump on the opportunity and bet the Patriots to win the Super Bowl.

As a final note, usually I would advocate a point spread bet (Patriots -4), but in this case, the money-line is especially attractive as bettors are hammering the Eagles (including four reported seven figure bets versus none on the Patriots) and Las Vegas sports-books are adjusting by offering a better value price on the Patriots, -180, meaning risking $180 to win $100.    Take New England on the money-line and enjoy Super Bowl LII.

harley@sharpedgepicks.com

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