The best value bet available this coming NFL championship weekend is boring: bet under 46.5 total points to be scored in the Jaguars vs Patriots game.
There is value in this bet for two reasons:
1 – Generally, bettors love betting overs and cheering for points. This is articulated in the Sharp Edge Approach. This is amplified in the playoffs, especially when a successful quarterback like Tom Brady is playing at home. Fans want to cheer for touchdowns and expect the Patriots to score at will. They also expect Jacksonville to fall behind and also sling the ball, trying to play catchup. The best approach to sports-betting is to gauge what the public sentiment is and do the opposite. If everyone is betting over, the total (46.5) is inflated and the correct figure is likely closer to 44.5. Those two points come in approximately 5% of the time, providing the bettor with a solid edge.
2 – In the playoffs, bettors tend to over-react to recent events. Last week the Patriots routed the Titans, putting up 35 points and the total points in the game were 49. The Jaguars, know as a defensive team, put up 45 points and a whopping 87 points were scored in their game versus the Steelers. The bettors just saw 49 and 87 points scored in the Patriots and Jaguars last game, so going over a mere 46.5 seems relatively easy. As my commandment 2b explains, watch recent history and DO THE OPPOSITE. Bettors tend to overreact to recent events and oddsmakers therefore have to over adjust.
The over-under for the Jaguars vs Patriots matchup is inflated and higher than it should be because of bettor tendencies and recent events. The value play is betting under 46.5 total points scored.