Written by 9:33 am Value bets and sports thoughts • 31 Comments

The Value of Rodgers

Rarely can you conduct an experiment to determine value in the real world in real time.   However, we now know EXACTLY the value of Packers Star quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

The Packers are at the Chiefs and were a small dog and 49% to win the game.   Then, Rodgers was announced out with COVID.   The game was pulled and came back minutes later with a new line, Chiefs -380, Packers +300, so Green Bay is now, net of VIG 24% to win the game.

With Rodgers 49%, without him, and ALL ELSE EQUAL, 24% to win the game.   Rodgers is therefore worth an extra 25% to the Packers chances of winning the game.

25% is INSANE!   In a 16 game season, that’s 4 wins.   In the NFL, parity reigns and most teams long term are expected to win 8 games.   Rodgers 4 win value is reflected as most years Green Bay is expected to win 10 games vs 6 games that a team without a real quarterback would be expected to win.

Rodgers singlehandedly makes the Packers a playoff calibre team year in year out and that is reflected in the crazy odds swing when his injury was announced.

Ohtani is winning baseball’s MVP with a WAR of 9 in 162 games, 9/162 = under 6%.   Rodgers is 25%.   Ridiculous!

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Last modified: March 17, 2023