What’s the line in the Raps @ Bucks game 4? SUPER tough line to set.
-Raps were the better team all year, the higher seed and a 3-1 fave to win the series
-Raps looked mediocre at home in 1st 2 games and were lucky to split
-Raps were a 1 pt dog in game 3 at Bucks, betting action on Bucks closed it at 2. Raps got CRUSHED and EMBARRASSED.
So, the million dollar question – what’s the line in game 4? Is it:
A: Bucks by 3.5+. Rationale: they closed at -2 in game 3 and crushed.
B: Bucks by 2. Rationale: it was just one game and lines shouldn’t over-react to a single result.
C: Pick. Rationale: Raps were better all year and now playing for their season ( in essence, can’t fall behind 3-1) with a better overall team.
What’s the answer? B. Bucks are at 2 point fave across the board. See updated lines here: http://sharpedgepicks.com/live-odds/nba/20170422/
LESSON TO BE LEARNED: oddsmakers do NOT over-react to a single result, the public may. If the line closed 2 for game 3, that is likely the correct price for game 4, similar key playoff game and any big move off Bucs -2, is public sentiment and you should fade (bet against) it for value.
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