Written by 8:24 am Value bets and sports thoughts • One Comment

What’s the Line?

What’s the line in the Raps @ Bucks game 4?   SUPER tough line to set.

Background/key info:

-Raps were the better team all year, the higher seed and a 3-1 fave to win the series

-Raps looked mediocre at home in 1st 2 games and were lucky to split

-Raps were a 1 pt dog in game 3 at Bucks, betting action on Bucks closed it at 2.   Raps got CRUSHED and EMBARRASSED.

So, the million dollar question – what’s the line in game 4?  Is it:

A: Bucks by 3.5+.   Rationale: they closed at -2 in game 3 and crushed.

B: Bucks by 2.   Rationale: it was just one game and lines shouldn’t over-react to a single result.

C: Pick.   Rationale: Raps were better all year and now playing for their season ( in essence, can’t fall behind 3-1) with a better overall team.

What’s the answer?   B.   Bucks are at 2 point fave across the board.   See updated lines here: http://z5h.808.mytemp.website/live-odds/nba/20170422/  

LESSON TO BE LEARNED: oddsmakers do NOT over-react to a single result, the public may.   If the line closed 2 for game 3, that is likely the correct price for game 4, similar key playoff game and any big move off Bucs -2, is public sentiment and you should fade (bet against) it for value.

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Last modified: March 18, 2023