Baseball, Blue Jays, and Betting – OH MY!

“Hope springs eternal” (Alexander Pope) Remember this moment! Spring is here after two LONG covid winters. The baseball season starts soon AND the Blue Jays are one of the favourites to win it all. For the first time, lots of casual sports-bettors can place legal wagers with licensed sportsbooks here in Ontario. So…. what are the Blue Jays chances of … Read More

NFL Value – Bet Big Underdogs

The ‘Sharp Edge Approach’ is clear – bet against the popular team and there is value.  In the NFL it is easy to determine the popular side – see who is a big favourite with the point spread, then bet the underdog taking the points. Studying data from 2008-2011 (4 years), there were over 1000 regular season games and 156 with … Read More

NFL: Halftime Dynamics – O/U

Remember as a child when your father split a chocolate bar in half between you and your brother, you always got the SMALLER HALF? Without going into too much detail why I turned out the way I did, the bigger question remains: How can two halves not equal a whole? Well, this phenomenon doesn’t just exist in chocolate bar splits. … Read More

NFL Betting: Dog or pass, Under or pass

Everyone loves betting the NFL.  This means that unlike other sports, where sharp money drives line movements, the LV books often set and move NFL lines based on casual bettors or public sentiment. Casual bettors love betting favourites (they know the Patriots/Brady are better then the Jets/whoever plays QB) and ignore the value of getting points (2% of the time … Read More

NFL Value – Small Road Dogs

Looking at ‘close’ games, where the home team is favored between 1-5.5 points against the spread, there have been 333 games over 4 years (2008-11) and the ROAD team has covered over 54% of the time, more than often enough to beat VIG and turn a 1.5-2% profit margin on top of that (strong margin for a sports gambler). Why? … Read More

General Value Bets: MLB underdogs @ 3-2 odds

Another Sharp Edge Picks article outlines some of the merits of betting baseball:  Namely, a ton of games, reduced vig, and quick turnaround times (allowing sportsbooks to make errors). So why focus on 3-2 moneyline underdogs in baseball?  With OVER 90% of teams winning between 64-97 (40-60%) of their games every year*, getting 3-2 odds is strong.  Of course, … Read More

Why Bet on Baseball?

Bet on Baseball? For some, baseball is the BEST thing to bet on – real value.   For some gamblers it is a disaster.   Try to answer the following questions honestly to determine if baseball is for you.  Should you STAY and bet?  Or, GO, and wait for September and the NFL? GO: SEE YOU IN SEPTEMBER If you … Read More

Value Bet: NBA 1st half road dogs getting 2-1 Moneyline

A boring value bet: NBA road teams getting 2-1 odds on the moneyline in the 1st half of the game. Explain the bet: you can bet on first halves of games.   The result at halftime is the end of the bet.   When you find a road team getting +200 or more, for the first half, they are usually good value. Why?  … Read More

3 Tips for March Madness Pools

Rules for Successful Bracket Picking: 1 – check the offshore lines and bet based on this not seeding.   Witchita St is a BIG FAVE as a 10 seed.   It is winning its 1st round game 70%+ of the time in a ‘close’ 7-10 matchup.  Linemakers know WAY MORE than the selection committee. 2 – bet the BIG fave … Read More