NFL Value Bet: Raiders +9.5 v Chiefs

This Sunday, the Raiders are a strong value bet +9.5 points against the Chiefs.   The bettors are excited as the Chiefs are hot and have won five in a row.   However, Mahomes & company are NOT the super offensive powerhouse they’ve been in years past.   In fact, they’ve only scored 23+ points once during their five game winning streak.   Winning by ten and covering is really tough when you are not scoring a ton.

Mahomes crushed the Raiders last month 41-14 throwing for over 400 yards.   It is that performance that is leading bettors to wager on KC making this line inflated.   Dig deeper.  Mahomes is averaging less than 220 yards per game passing over his last five excluding that explosion versus the Raiders.   That night may have been the inflated aberration.

The Raiders, like many NFL teams are in the middle of the pack; playing .500 ball and are ok.    They have struggled lately, losing four of five but 9.5 points is a lot.   The NFL is loved for its parity and winning by 10+ points is really difficult – take the points!

Record betting ATS on Yardbarker to date: 2-0


Michigan +8.5 v Ohio St – WIN

Under 45.5 points Bills v Saints – WIN

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