Value Bet: Cardinals -2.5 MNF

I rarely bet favourites. Generally speaking the public bets the favourite because they are the better team, totally ignores the point spread, and often lose, especially in the NFL with its parity and close games.

However, this game is an exception to the rule. Why? The Cardinals are clearly the better team. They’ve got a better record and a much better defence. They’ve won two more games than the Rams. Arizona’s defense is considerably better, giving up an average of only 18.6 ppg vs the Rams 22.5 (they’ve also scored a bit more than the Rams). That four point differential on defensive points allowed per game is huge.

The Rams have also struggled of late, losing three of their last four games. This line is short because the bettors like Stafford better and don’t trust the Cardinals to deliver. Arizona appears to be the class of the NFL this year – bet them minus 2.5 versus the Rams on Monday Night Football!

NOTE: I’m 2-0 ATS betting football with Yardbarker (wins with under 45.5 Saints v Bills & Michigan +8.5 v Ohio St). I also took the Raiders +9.5 Sunday vs the Chiefs, pending.

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