Another Sharp Edge Picks article outlines some of the merits of betting baseball: http://sharpedgepicks.com/why-bet-on-baseball/ Namely, a ton of games, reduced vig, and quick turnaround times (allowing sportsbooks to make errors).
So why focus on 3-2 moneyline underdogs in baseball? With OVER 90% of teams winning between 64-97 (40-60%) of their games every year*, getting 3-2 odds is strong. Of course, the weak Padres are NOT winning 40% of their games at Kershaw and the Dodgers. However, throwing out the horrid teams and opposing aces, the 3-2 odds are a good benchmark.
Betting against mediocre pitchers, even with strong lineups and getting 3-2 is usually good value. Betting on a bad team with a solid pitcher and getting 3-2 is strong also. In this post steroid era of low over/under games, there are a lot more 1 run games of the 3-2 variety. In these games, a single play (bloop double with 2 on and 2 out in the 7th) can change the game and getting 3-2 or better on your money is value.
* over 3 years (2014-16), only 8/90, 9% of teams have won more than 60% of their games for a season or lost more than 60% (2016 Cubs and Twins, 2015 Phils, Cards, Pirates, Reds and 2014 Angels and D-backs).
need a refresher on the terms? See our glossary of terms.
need a refresher on the odds and how they work? See explaining the odds.
Also published on Medium.