Value Bets & Sports Thoughts

Bets & Sports Thoughts

A Different Kind of NBA

In the 1980s, the Lakers or Celtics won 8 of 10 titles. Then, over a 16 year stretch, only the Bulls, Pistons, Rockets, Spurs and Lakers won championships. Then we saw the dominance of Lebron and Steph. But now, the NBA is wide open. For the better part of the NBA’s history, had you made …

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Baseball, Blue Jays, and Betting – OH MY!

“Hope springs eternal” (Alexander Pope) Remember this moment! Spring is here after two LONG covid winters. The baseball season starts soon AND the Blue Jays are one of the favourites to win it all. For the first time, lots of casual sports-bettors can place legal wagers with licensed sportsbooks here in Ontario. So…. what are …

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Bet On Anyone But Joki To Win In Oz

One of the tennis majors, the Australian Open, is starting next week. Betting on almost anyone to win it is value. What? How can that be? You better get on this bet quickly! The best tennis player in the world, by far is Novak Djokovic; he is a huge favourite to win the Australian Open …

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Bowling for Underdog Dollars

Bowl season starts this weekend. There are a ton of games and the value is on the big underdogs with the moneyline. What does that mean? Bet big underdogs to upset the favourites and get paid out 3-5x your money when it happens. Below are seven such bets the first weekend. Win any two of …

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Value Bets – as seen @Yardbarker

I’m up 6.7 units of profit @Yardbarker: Ravens +3.5 vs Bengals – LOSS 1.1 units (with VIG) Titans +3.5 vs 49ers – WIN 1 unit Saints +11.5 vs Bucs – WIN 1 unit Went 3-3 betting HUGE bowl dogs for +6 units (3 wins X +300 – 3 X 100 losses) Cardinals -2.5 vs Rams – LOSS 1.1 units (with VIG) Raiders …

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NFL Value Bets: Parleh video clips

I finished the regular season at 7-4 betting the NFL ATS (against the spread) @theparleh Jan 9: Dolphins +6.5 vs Patriots – WIN Dec 19: Giants +10.5 vs Cowboys – LOSS Dec 12: Bills +3.5 vs Tampa – LOSS Dec 5: Chargers +3 vs Bengals – WIN Nov 28: Titans +6.5 vs Patriots – LOSS Nov …

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Just how awesome is Rodgers?

So Rodgers is worth 4 wins per NFL season above replacement. To expand and explain the math: the Packers odds to beat the Chiefs were roughly 50-50 at most sportsbooks when the public all thought Rodgers was playing.   Then BOOM – he’s suddenly out with COVID – nothing else changes but the Packers do NOT have Rodgers.   Sportsbooks reset …

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The Value of Rodgers

Rarely can you conduct an experiment to determine value in the real world in real time.   However, we now know EXACTLY the value of Packers Star quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are at the Chiefs and were a small dog and 49% to win the game.   Then, Rodgers was announced out with COVID.   The game …

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Kawhi is Toronto’s Third Legend

Sunday night Kawhi did what every kid dreams about – he hit a buzzer beater in the deciding game so his team could win it.   It is rare.   Kawhi’s buzzer beater was the first in a game 7 in NBA history. However, Toronto sports fans are blessed.   Twice previously in the last 30 years, we’ve …

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NBA – Horrid Officiating Accepted

Adam Silver really put his foot in his mouth when commenting about NBA officiating last spring. He thought this was a positive spin – refs getting 90% of calls correct is pretty good right?   No!  90% right means 10% wrong and in the NBA with over 1 officiating call per minute, that translates …

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Last modified: December 4, 2023

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