So Rodgers is worth 4 wins per NFL season above replacement.
To expand and explain the math: the Packers odds to beat the Chiefs were roughly 50-50 at most sportsbooks when the public all thought Rodgers was playing. Then BOOM – he’s suddenly out with COVID – nothing else changes but the Packers do NOT have Rodgers. Sportsbooks reset the odds at -+300/-380 meaning you need to risk $380 to win $100 on the Chiefs and you get 3x your money or $300 profit betting on the Packers to win without Rodgers. Suddenly without Rodgers, the sportsbooks think that the Packers chances to win drop dramatically to approximately 25% from 50%. Rodgers value is therefore the delta (or change from 50 down to 25), 25% value add. .25 x 16 game season = 4 wins. Makes sense – the Packers win about 10 games per year with him and teams that are mediocre average 6 wins.
Ramifications of Rodgers value to NFL GMs: get a stud quarterback at ALL COSTS. This seems obvious and it’s hard to predict what stud QB will have 10+ years of staying power, but try to find one and lock him in – like the Chiefs did with Mahomes. Running backs come and go (Ditka’s Saints move with Williams was silly), defensive stars? NOTHING compares to these stud QBs – mortgage the farm in the draft or trade for one if you can – give up whatever it takes – most other “stars” are worth 1 win a year, stud QBs are worth 4.
Are other stars in other sports worth this much? Yes! Lebron in his prime, or a super NBA stud can move a line 6+ points if suddenly announced out – this can move the opponent was 50-50 to 75% to beat you. But, in the NBA everyone knows this and that’s why Toronto and LA chased Kawhi around minute by minute – the gap between superstar and star is wide – Kyle Lowry was good during the Raps championship run and worth 3-8% win rate, Kawhi was awesome and worth 20-25%. The NBA has a silly salary cap – in a non-cap world, Lebron at his prime could justify $60mil, or more than half a team cap!
What about a baseball “ACE”? Yes! IF it’s a true ace – Degrom is worth a ton! If the Mets are 50-50 to win most games, they’d be 40% to win (sportsbook odds) with a backup starter and 70% to win with Degrom. So Degrom is worth 30% above replacement starter per start. If he starts 30 times per year that’s 9 wins of value (30% x 30). That makes a .500 ballclub a borderline playoff team. As an added bonus the “ace” pitches closer to 35% of playoff games given off days so he’s even MORE VALUABLE in the post season!
CAUTION – this works for real studs – Rodgers, Lebron in his prime, recent Degrom. Do NOT convince yourself your teams best player is a superstud. Baker Mayfield, Kyle Lowry, or Hyun Ryu – they move the line with a sudden absence, but NOTHING close to Rodgers, Lebron, or Degrom – the best are NOT replaceable, the rest are.
Last modified: March 17, 2023
Copyright © Sharpedgepicks 2023 || Powered by 
Oh my goodness! Amazing article dude! Thanks, However I am encountering difficulties with
your RSS. I don’t understand the reason why I can’t subscribe to it.
Is there anybody getting similar RSS issues? Anybody who knows the answer can you kindly respond?
Thanks!!
I absolutely love your website.. Pleasant colors & theme. Did you create this website yourself?
Please reply back as I’m hoping to create my own site and would like to know where you got
this from or what the theme is called. Thanks!
hi!,I love your writing very a lot! proportion we communicate more approximately your article on AOL? I require an expert on this house to solve my problem. Maybe that’s you! Having a look forward to look you.
You are my inhalation, I possess few web logs and rarely run out from to post .
Hello my friend! I want to say that this post is awesome, nice written and include approximately all significant infos. I would like to peer more posts like this .
I genuinely enjoy examining on this site, it has good posts.
Thanks a lot for sharing this with all people you really know what you are speaking approximately! Bookmarked. Kindly also talk over with my site =). We can have a hyperlink exchange arrangement between us!
After study a few of the blog posts on your website now, and I truly like your way of blogging. I bookmarked it to my bookmark website list and will be checking back soon. Pls check out my web site as well and let me know what you think.
I like this post, enjoyed this one thankyou for putting up.
What Is Sugar Defender? Sugar Defender is a natural blood sugar support formula created by Tom Green. It is based on scientific breakthroughs and clinical studies.
What is Alpha Tonic? Alpha Tonic stands as a natural health supplement designed to comprehensively address men’s overall well-being.
Thank you a bunch for sharing this with all people you really know what you’re speaking approximately! Bookmarked. Kindly additionally talk over with my web site =). We could have a link trade arrangement among us!
Your home is valueble for me. Thanks!…
Hmm is anyone else encountering problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to determine if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any responses would be greatly appreciated.
It’s actually a nice and helpful piece of information. I am glad that you shared this helpful information with us. Please keep us up to date like this. Thanks for sharing.
Hi there! This post couldn’t be written any better! Reading through this post reminds me of my previous room mate! He always kept talking about this. I will forward this article to him. Pretty sure he will have a good read. Thank you for sharing!
Wohh precisely what I was searching for, regards for putting up.
I am glad to be a visitant of this stark weblog! , regards for this rare information! .