Written by 9:33 am Value bets and sports thoughts • 30 Comments

Just how awesome is Rodgers?

So Rodgers is worth 4 wins per NFL season above replacement.

To expand and explain the math: the Packers odds to beat the Chiefs were roughly 50-50 at most sportsbooks when the public all thought Rodgers was playing.   Then BOOM – he’s suddenly out with COVID – nothing else changes but the Packers do NOT have Rodgers.   Sportsbooks reset the odds at -+300/-380 meaning you need to risk $380 to win $100 on the Chiefs and you get 3x your money or $300 profit betting on the Packers to win without Rodgers.   Suddenly without Rodgers, the sportsbooks think that the Packers chances to win drop dramatically to approximately 25% from 50%.  Rodgers value is therefore the delta (or change from 50 down to 25), 25% value add.   .25 x 16 game season = 4 wins.   Makes sense – the Packers win about 10 games per year with him and teams that are mediocre average 6 wins.

Ramifications of Rodgers value to NFL GMs: get a stud quarterback at ALL COSTS.   This seems obvious and it’s hard to predict what stud QB will have 10+ years of staying power, but try to find one and lock him in – like the Chiefs did with Mahomes.   Running backs come and go (Ditka’s Saints move with Williams was silly), defensive stars?   NOTHING compares to these stud QBs – mortgage the farm in the draft or trade for one if you can – give up whatever it takes – most other “stars” are worth 1 win a year, stud QBs are worth 4.

Are other stars in other sports worth this much?   Yes!   Lebron in his prime, or a super NBA stud can move a line 6+ points if suddenly announced out – this can move the opponent was 50-50 to 75% to beat you.  But, in the NBA everyone knows this and that’s why Toronto and LA chased Kawhi around minute by minute – the gap between superstar and star is wide – Kyle Lowry was good during the Raps championship run and worth 3-8% win rate, Kawhi was awesome and worth 20-25%.   The NBA has a silly salary cap – in a non-cap world, Lebron at his prime could justify $60mil, or more than half a team cap!

What about a baseball “ACE”?   Yes!   IF it’s a true ace – Degrom is worth a ton!    If the Mets are 50-50 to win most games, they’d be 40% to win (sportsbook odds) with a backup starter and 70% to win with Degrom.    So Degrom is worth 30% above replacement starter per start.   If he starts 30 times per year that’s 9 wins of value (30% x 30).   That makes a .500 ballclub a borderline playoff team.   As an added bonus the “ace” pitches closer to 35% of playoff games given off days so he’s even MORE VALUABLE in the post season!

CAUTION – this works for real studs – Rodgers, Lebron in his prime, recent Degrom.   Do NOT convince yourself your teams best player is a superstud.   Baker Mayfield, Kyle Lowry, or Hyun Ryu – they move the line with a sudden absence, but NOTHING close to Rodgers, Lebron, or Degrom – the best are NOT replaceable, the rest are.


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Last modified: March 17, 2023