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The Impact of Game Totals on Fantasy Baseball

MLB has an INSANE range of scores. Coors (Colorado) regularly has 9-7 ball games and Petco (San Diego) often sees 1-0 nail-bitters. Games with lots of runs scored are very beneficial for your position players and low scoring games benefit your pitchers.

Las Vegas and online bookmakers take bets on the total runs expected to be scored in each MLB game -see link to DonBest MLB totals: http://z5h.808.mytemp.website/live-odds/mlb/  Each game has a ’total runs’ expected to be scored. They range from under 6 (when Kershaw is pitching against a weak hitting team) to 11+ (when AL teams are playing with weak pitchers and good offences in player friendly parks). Some games are therefore expected to have 2x as many runs scored as others. To optimize success in fantasy selections, pick offensive players in games with high over-unders, 8.5 runs or more and pitchers from low scoring over-unders, totals of 7.5 or less.

NOTE: taking players from the team listed as the favourite will also give you a marginal edge as teams score more and give up less when they win. BUT, this edge is marginal in MLB due to parity and the nature of baseball – in most games, each team has a 40%+ chance of winning: http://z5h.808.mytemp.website/general-value-bets-mlb-underdogs-3-2-odds/

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Last modified: March 15, 2023