Rules for Successful Bracket Picking:
1 – check the offshore lines and bet based on this not seeding. Witchita St is a BIG FAVE as a 10 seed. It is winning its 1st round game 70%+ of the time in a ‘close’ 7-10 matchup. Linemakers know WAY MORE than the selection committee.
2 – bet the BIG fave in round 1 to get to the sweet 16 vs the little fave. Ie, Butler is a 4 seed, but a HUGE fave, while Minnesota who is the 5 seed they’d play in round 2 is a very small fave. There is a MUCH BETTER chance Butler (85%) gets to round 2 (vs Mini at 52%) so betting them in round 2 makes sense.
3 – use the offshore ‘win tourney’ lines to finish the brackets off. Gonzaga & Nova’s chances of winning the tourney are CONSIDERABLY LESS then Kansas or North Carolina. Not all #1s are equal.
Following these 3 simple rules put you in an edge position, leading to better long term bracket results.
need a refresher on the terms? See our glossary of terms.
need a refresher on the odds and how they work? See explaining the odds.