There is ONE piece of sport-betting advice that is BEST applicable to NFL fantasy selections – FOCUS ON GAMES WITH HIGH OVER-UNDERS.
If you understand this, you can skip the rest of this article, knowing you have a HUGE EDGE vs your opponents in BOTH season-long AND weekly fantasy.
The explanation. Here are the NFL game odds. Each game has an expected total points scored with roughly a 50% chance the game goes over that number and 50% under that number. IF you take offensive players (QB, WR, RB, TE, and kickers) from a game where 60 points are expected to be scored, you are likely to get A LOT MORE points than selecting players where only 35 points are expected to be scored.
The NFL has a HUGE variation in expected points scored across matchups. Each week there is a total around 52 and one around 40. The difference is 30%. In other words, an avg receiver in the high total game could be expected to score 30% MORE points than an avg receiver in a low total game. Think 13 fantasy pts per player vs 10 – IT ADDS UP QUICK.
Teams that move the ball quickly, pass a lot, take risks, or have weak Ds all tend to have big over/unders for their games. Focusing on those teams/games will allow you to create teams with 15-25 additional expected points per week – the difference between the sucker and the shark!
need a refresher on the terms? See our glossary of terms.
need a refresher on the odds and how they work? See explaining the odds.