Written by 9:03 am Betting concepts, Specific sports strategy • 81 Comments

NFL Value – Bet Big Underdogs

The ‘Sharp Edge Approach’ is clear – bet against the popular team and there is value.  In the NFL it is easy to determine the popular side – see who is a big favourite with the point spread, then bet the underdog taking the points.

Studying data from 2008-2011 (4 years), there were over 1000 regular season games and 156 with a 10pt+ favorite in the game.  The 10 pt+ underdog covered the spread 92 times for a 59% winning percentage.  59% is an obscenely high cover % vs the spread, and virtually unsustainable for even the best professional handicappers.

Betting these 10+ point underdogs will not be easy.  You will be betting ugly teams who sometimes lose 31-7 and look horrid on the field.  When you lose, your friends will laugh at you as they are cheering and winning with the studs of the NFL.  But, if you follow the numbers and the ‘Sharp Edge’ approach, you will have more success long term.

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Last modified: March 17, 2023