Strategy Articles

Strategy Articles
Betting Strategies for Different Sports

Adapt or Die: Baseball betting lesson

Sometimes I revisit old articles and find the same is true now as it was a decade ago. Sometimes… not so much. Baseball has CHANGED.    This was an accurate article a decade ago: https://sharpedgepicks.com/general-value-bets-mlb-underdogs-3-2-odds/ MLB had parity, winning 90 games consistently was tough, and nobody lost more than 70 games more than two years …

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Size Matters – guide to success in March Madness brackets

Women have been lying to men for generations – size matters! And it DEFINITELY matters when filling out your March Madness bracket. The larger the size of the pool, the more dogs or “wild picks” you need to make to have a good chance of success. In the later rounds, adjust your picks based on …

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Bowling for Underdog Dollars

Bowl season starts this weekend. There are a ton of games and the value is on the big underdogs with the moneyline. What does that mean? Bet big underdogs to upset the favourites and get paid out 3-5x your money when it happens. Below are seven such bets the first weekend. Win any two of …

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NFL Fantasy Selection – TOP TIP

There is ONE piece of sport-betting advice that is BEST applicable to NFL fantasy selections – FOCUS ON GAMES WITH HIGH OVER-UNDERS. If you understand this, you can skip the rest of this article, knowing you have a HUGE EDGE vs your opponents in BOTH season-long AND weekly fantasy. The explanation.   Here are the NFL game …

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NFL Value – Bet Big Underdogs

The ‘Sharp Edge Approach’ is clear – bet against the popular team and there is value.  In the NFL it is easy to determine the popular side – see who is a big favourite with the point spread, then bet the underdog taking the points. Studying data from 2008-2011 (4 years), there were over 1000 regular season …

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The Trouble with Teasers

The Trouble with Teasers Generally speaking, betting teasers is not a good value proposition.* A teaser is a specific type of bet where you get extra points, but must pay extra odds. The most popular teaser is in the NFL, where a 2 team, 6 pt teaser requires the same -110 odds, or VIG as …

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NFL: Halftime Dynamics – O/U

Remember as a child when your father split a chocolate bar in half between you and your brother, you always got the SMALLER HALF? Without going into too much detail why I turned out the way I did, the bigger question remains: How can two halves not equal a whole? Well, this phenomenon doesn’t just …

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NFL Betting: Dog or pass, Under or pass

Everyone loves betting the NFL.  This means that unlike other sports, where sharp money drives line movements, the LV books often set and move NFL lines based on casual bettors or public sentiment. Casual bettors love betting favourites (they know the Patriots/Brady are better then the Jets/whoever plays QB) and ignore the value of getting …

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NFL Value – Small Road Dogs

Looking at ‘close’ games, where the home team is favored between 1-5.5 points against the spread, there have been 333 games over 4 years (2008-11) and the ROAD team has covered over 54% of the time, more than often enough to beat VIG and turn a 1.5-2% profit margin on top of that (strong margin …

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General Value Bets: MLB underdogs @ 3-2 odds

Another Sharp Edge Picks article outlines some of the merits of betting baseball: http://z5h.808.mytemp.website/why-bet-on-baseball/  Namely, a ton of games, reduced vig, and quick turnaround times (allowing sportsbooks to make errors). So why focus on 3-2 moneyline underdogs in baseball?  With OVER 90% of teams winning between 64-97 (40-60%) of their games every year*, getting 3-2 odds …

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Last modified: December 4, 2023

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