Written by 2:48 pm Betting concepts, Specific sports strategy

Adapt or Die: Baseball betting lesson

Sometimes I revisit old articles and find the same is true now as it was a decade ago.

Sometimes… not so much.

Baseball has CHANGED.    This was an accurate article a decade ago: https://sharpedgepicks.com/general-value-bets-mlb-underdogs-3-2-odds/

MLB had parity, winning 90 games consistently was tough, and nobody lost more than 70 games more than two years in a row.

THEN – the Astros purposely blew up their team, stacked it with top picks, went on to become champions, and everyone followed the model.

In MLB today, there are a handful of horrid team (Whitesox, Pirates, Rockies, A’s) and a handful of super teams (O’s, Yanks, Dodgers, Braves), and a bunch in the middle.   Betting horrid teams vs super ones at 3:2 would not generally be value.

Baseball changed so the approach to betting baseball needs to change – ADAPT OR DIE (or in this case lose your bankroll following a strategy that no longer works).

Are 3:2 dogs generally better value than 3:2 faves?   Yes.   Especially when dealing with the 22 teams who aren’t horrid or super.   BUT, games change and you need to adjust!

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Last modified: June 10, 2024

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