Written by sep123• March 15, 2023• 8:19 am• Value bets and sports thoughts • 8,192 Comments

Blue Jays AWFUL 1-run record is NOT bad luck

Bill James is WRONG. MLB stats geeks are WRONG. Run differential does NOT always predict baseball success over time.

Consensus in MLB right now is that if your run differential is very positive (you score a lot more runs than you give up), you are a strong team that will win long term. 1 run losses are mostly bad luck that evens out over time.

That is INCORRECT and the Blue Jays go as close to proving it as mathematically possible. The Blue Jays were built by JP (and then AA) to hit homers. They bludgeon opponents one night 8-4, then lose a close 3-2 game the next because they don’t have executers (bunters, stolen base threats, etc). For almost 2 decades, they have been a mediocre team with a strong run differential. Proof is in the data below. In the 14+ years since JP assumed control, the Blue Jays are a respectable 849-786 in games decided by 2+ runs. They’ve been mediocre during that stretch, yet winning ‘real’ (non 1 run games), at a 52% clip is pretty impressive (avg 84-78 per year AND a strong plus run differential).

HOWEVER, the Blue Jays are an embarrassingly horrid 282-350 in 1 run games. That’s almost 4 seasons of data points and they win 44% of 1 run games – equivalent to going 72-90 EVERY YEAR – which is horrendous. IF a baseball team went 72-90 for 4 straight years and every year management/media that owns the team, simply said they were ‘unlucky’, you’d dismiss them as crazy – that is the Blue Jays and what they’ve been doing.

The data also shows this does not appear to be manager Gibbons’ fault as they are just as bad with him in 1 run games as without, but they are trending worse over time.

New GM Shapiro has just started his tenure. In year one, he went 21-25 in 1 run games. The Jays had 2 base stealing threats and he traded 1 for a reliever (Revere) and the other is in the minors (Pompey). If you cannot win close games, making the playoffs is challenging and winning in October is almost impossible. This is NOT bad luck, its a failed strategy implemented by JP because he misunderstood the essence of moneyball, and, as of yet, has not been corrected.

Note: to start 2016, the Blue Jays chose to keep BOTH Goins & Barney on the roster, two backup middle infielders with similar skill sets. Dumping either one for a true stolen base threat would have added more value to the ballclub.

Blue Jays Record in 1 Run Games
Year	GM	Manager	Wins	Losses	Difference
2002	JP	xJG	23	21	2
2003	JP	xJG	14	23	-9
2004	JP	xJG	17	22	-5
2005	JP	JG	16	31	-15
2006	JP	JG	20	10	10
2007	JP	JG	29	25	4
2008	JP	xJG	24	32	-8
2009	JP	xJG	21	28	-7
2010	AA	xJG	24	28	-4
2011	AA	xJG	29	28	1
2012	AA	xJG	15	25	-10
2013	AA	JG	20	29	-9
2014	AA	JG	15	20	-5
2015	AA	JG	15	28	-13

Years	14		282	350	-68
Total Dif	-68		n	632
Avg Annual	-4.86		win %	44.62%

AA			JG
Years	6		Years	6
Total Dif	-40		Total Dif	-28
Avg Annual	-6.67		Avg Annual	-4.67

JP			xJG
Years	8		Years	8
Total Dif	-28		Total Dif	-40
Avg Annual	-3.50		Avg Annual	-5.00

Overall
Wins	Losses
78	84
86	76
67	94
80	82
87	75
83	79
86	76
75	87
85	77
81	81
73	89
74	88
83	79
93	69
1131	1136

2+ Run Games
Wins	Losses	Difference
55	63	-8
72	53	19
50	72	-22
64	51	13
67	65	2
54	54	0
62	44	18
54	59	-5
61	49	12
52	53	-1
58	64	-6
54	59	-5
68	59	9
78	41	37

849	786	63
n	1635
win %	51.93%