Sportsbetting for a Living: Fine Line Between ‘Professional’ and Tourist
They say sports gambling is a very tough way to make an easy living. It is so true. In fact, due to volatility in betting, it could take years to determine if you are indeed a ‘professional’ or have a significant edge. The example below illustrates the point.
Volatility: A Concrete Example
Assume:
-you make 1 strong bet per day, 365 days per yr, risking $5k per bet.
-you follow the ‘Sharp Approach’ betting underdogs, getting an average of +150 or 3-2 odds, paying you $7500 of profit when you win your $5k bets. +150 odds generally equates to about a 4 pt underdog in basketball or football and the average underdog in baseball or hockey.
Win Rate Assumptions
Win 40% This is the break even rate with juice, winning 40% at 3/2 odds and losing 60%. This win rate allows you to breakeven including vig, difficult, but possible for a casual gambler focused on underdogs.
Win 41.4%. This assumes earning a 3.4% profit margin – a strong figure by any standard for a ‘professional’ sports gambler. You can accomplish this figure by staying focused on solid value and can usually find 5-10 bets per week this strong.
Win 38.5%. This is the average win rate if you were betting under an efficient market system. +150 payoff, with juice corresponds with -170 on the favorite. Using an average of 160 ((150 + 170)/2), you should win 100/(100+160) = 38.5% of the time.
EV* |
Wins** |
wins*** |
PROFIT**** |
|
break even |
0.4 |
146 |
1,095,000 |
$0 |
Pro |
0.414 |
151 |
1,132,500 |
$62,500 |
Avg Loser |
0.385 |
141 |
1,057,500 |
($62,500) |
EV |
Losses |
losses** |
Margin***** |
|
break even |
0.6 |
-219 |
-1,095,000 |
0.00% |
Pro |
0.586 |
-214 |
-1,070,000 |
3.42% |
Avg Loser |
0.615 |
-224 |
-1,120,000 |
-3.42% |
*The ‘professional’ has an expected win rate of 41.4% and therefore a corresponding loss % of 1-.414 = .586
** Winning 41.4% of the time, on 365 bets gives the ‘professional’ a 151 win expected value (and hence 365-151 = 214 expected loses)
*** Winning 151 bets at $7500 per bet is $1.1325 million, and losing 214 bets at $5k per bet is $1.07 mil.
**** $1.1325 mil of wins minus 1.07 mil of losses equals $62.5k of sports betting expected profit for the year
***** betting $5k daily for 365 days is a total amount bet of $1.825 mil and $62.5k of profit is the 3.4% margin described above. This profit margin would be consistent with a very accomplished ‘professional’ sports bettor.
CONCLUSION: Over a whole year of betting small to medium sized underdogs, daily, winning 146 games allows you to breaks even, 141 and you’re an average loser, and 151 makes you a STRONG PRO with a 3.4% profit margin. Annually, there is ONLY A 10 GAME GAP BETWEEN TOURIST AND ‘PROFESSIONAL’ = VERY FINE LINE!!
Last modified: March 18, 2023
I do consider all of the ideas you have offered on your
post. They’re very convincing and can definitely work.
Still, the posts are too brief for newbies.
Could you please extend them a little from next time?
Thank you for the post.
This site definitely has all of the information I needed about this subject
My website: порно ебет мать
Major thanks for the article post. Much thanks again.
My website: свингер секс
My website: секс толпой
These technologies engage students in dynamic ways, fostering critical thinking, creativity, and problem-solving skills.