So Rodgers is worth 4 wins per NFL season above replacement.
To expand and explain the math: the Packers odds to beat the Chiefs were roughly 50-50 at most sportsbooks when the public all thought Rodgers was playing. Then BOOM – he’s suddenly out with COVID – nothing else changes but the Packers do NOT have Rodgers. Sportsbooks reset the odds at -+300/-380 meaning you need to risk $380 to win $100 on the Chiefs and you get 3x your money or $300 profit betting on the Packers to win without Rodgers. Suddenly without Rodgers, the sportsbooks think that the Packers chances to win drop dramatically to approximately 25% from 50%. Rodgers value is therefore the delta (or change from 50 down to 25), 25% value add. .25 x 16 game season = 4 wins. Makes sense – the Packers win about 10 games per year with him and teams that are mediocre average 6 wins.
Ramifications of Rodgers value to NFL GMs: get a stud quarterback at ALL COSTS. This seems obvious and it’s hard to predict what stud QB will have 10+ years of staying power, but try to find one and lock him in – like the Chiefs did with Mahomes. Running backs come and go (Ditka’s Saints move with Williams was silly), defensive stars? NOTHING compares to these stud QBs – mortgage the farm in the draft or trade for one if you can – give up whatever it takes – most other “stars” are worth 1 win a year, stud QBs are worth 4.
Are other stars in other sports worth this much? Yes! Lebron in his prime, or a super NBA stud can move a line 6+ points if suddenly announced out – this can move the opponent was 50-50 to 75% to beat you. But, in the NBA everyone knows this and that’s why Toronto and LA chased Kawhi around minute by minute – the gap between superstar and star is wide – Kyle Lowry was good during the Raps championship run and worth 3-8% win rate, Kawhi was awesome and worth 20-25%. The NBA has a silly salary cap – in a non-cap world, Lebron at his prime could justify $60mil, or more than half a team cap!
What about a baseball “ACE”? Yes! IF it’s a true ace – Degrom is worth a ton! If the Mets are 50-50 to win most games, they’d be 40% to win (sportsbook odds) with a backup starter and 70% to win with Degrom. So Degrom is worth 30% above replacement starter per start. If he starts 30 times per year that’s 9 wins of value (30% x 30). That makes a .500 ballclub a borderline playoff team. As an added bonus the “ace” pitches closer to 35% of playoff games given off days so he’s even MORE VALUABLE in the post season!
CAUTION – this works for real studs – Rodgers, Lebron in his prime, recent Degrom. Do NOT convince yourself your teams best player is a superstud. Baker Mayfield, Kyle Lowry, or Hyun Ryu – they move the line with a sudden absence, but NOTHING close to Rodgers, Lebron, or Degrom – the best are NOT replaceable, the rest are.
Last modified: March 17, 2023
Oh my goodness! Amazing article dude! Thanks, However I am encountering difficulties with
your RSS. I don’t understand the reason why I can’t subscribe to it.
Is there anybody getting similar RSS issues? Anybody who knows the answer can you kindly respond?
Thanks!!
I absolutely love your website.. Pleasant colors & theme. Did you create this website yourself?
Please reply back as I’m hoping to create my own site and would like to know where you got
this from or what the theme is called. Thanks!
hi!,I love your writing very a lot! proportion we communicate more approximately your article on AOL? I require an expert on this house to solve my problem. Maybe that’s you! Having a look forward to look you.
You are my inhalation, I possess few web logs and rarely run out from to post .
Hello my friend! I want to say that this post is awesome, nice written and include approximately all significant infos. I would like to peer more posts like this .
I genuinely enjoy examining on this site, it has good posts.
Thanks a lot for sharing this with all people you really know what you are speaking approximately! Bookmarked. Kindly also talk over with my site =). We can have a hyperlink exchange arrangement between us!
After study a few of the blog posts on your website now, and I truly like your way of blogging. I bookmarked it to my bookmark website list and will be checking back soon. Pls check out my web site as well and let me know what you think.
I like this post, enjoyed this one thankyou for putting up.
What Is Sugar Defender? Sugar Defender is a natural blood sugar support formula created by Tom Green. It is based on scientific breakthroughs and clinical studies.
What is Alpha Tonic? Alpha Tonic stands as a natural health supplement designed to comprehensively address men’s overall well-being.
Thank you a bunch for sharing this with all people you really know what you’re speaking approximately! Bookmarked. Kindly additionally talk over with my web site =). We could have a link trade arrangement among us!
Your home is valueble for me. Thanks!…
Hmm is anyone else encountering problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to determine if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any responses would be greatly appreciated.
It’s actually a nice and helpful piece of information. I am glad that you shared this helpful information with us. Please keep us up to date like this. Thanks for sharing.
Hi there! This post couldn’t be written any better! Reading through this post reminds me of my previous room mate! He always kept talking about this. I will forward this article to him. Pretty sure he will have a good read. Thank you for sharing!
Wohh precisely what I was searching for, regards for putting up.
I am glad to be a visitant of this stark weblog! , regards for this rare information! .
Thanx for the effort, keep up the good work Great work, I am going to start a small Blog Engine course work using your site I hope you enjoy blogging with the popular BlogEngine.net.Thethoughts you express are really awesome. Hope you will right some more posts.
I dugg some of you post as I cogitated they were extremely helpful very beneficial
I rattling happy to find this web site on bing, just what I was looking for : D likewise saved to favorites.
Hi just wanted to give you a brief heads up and let you know a few of the images aren’t loading properly. I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I’ve tried it in two different browsers and both show the same outcome.
I have recently started a website, the information you provide on this website has helped me tremendously. Thanks for all of your time & work.
I like this weblog very much, Its a really nice berth to read and obtain information.
Excellent read, I just passed this onto a friend who was doing a little research on that. And he just bought me lunch since I found it for him smile So let me rephrase that: Thank you for lunch!
What Is Sugar Defender?Sugar Defender is a new blood sugar-balancing formula that has been formulated using eight clinically proven ingredients that work together to balance sugar levels.
Nagano Lean Body Tonic: An IntroductionNagano Lean Body Tonic is a dietary supplement designed to help lose unhealthy weight.
You actually make it seem really easy together with your presentation however I to find this matter to be really something which I think I might never understand. It sort of feels too complicated and extremely vast for me. I am taking a look ahead to your subsequent put up, I will try to get the cling of it!
Prodentim: What is it? Some of the finest and highest quality ingredients are used to produce Prodentim, an oral health supplement
Fantastic perspective! The points you made are thought-provoking. For additional insights, check out this link: FIND OUT MORE. What do others think about this?
You have noted very interesting points! ps nice website.Money from blog
You rocked this subject and have astounding insights. I also work hard in putting together great content about Web Development, feel free to visit YR4
great post, very informative. I wonder why the opposite specialists of this sector do not notice this. You must continue your writing. I am sure, you have a huge readers’ base already!
startup talky I am truly thankful to the owner of this web site who has shared this fantastic piece of writing at at this place.
Techno rozen For the reason that the admin of this site is working, no uncertainty very quickly it will be renowned, due to its quality contents.
Baddiehubs I very delighted to find this internet site on bing, just what I was searching for as well saved to fav
My brother suggested I might like this blog He was totally right This post actually made my day You can not imagine simply how much time I had spent for this info Thanks
you are in reality a good webmaster The website loading velocity is amazing It sort of feels that youre doing any distinctive trick Also The contents are masterwork you have done a fantastic job in this topic
Can you be more specific about the content of your article? After reading it, I still have some doubts. Hope you can help me.
أنابيب البولي بروبيلين كوبوليمر عشوائي (PP-R) في العراق في مصنع إيليت بايب في العراق، تمثل أنابيب البولي بروبيلين كوبوليمر عشوائي (PP-R) قمة حلول الأنابيب الحديثة. تشتهر هذه الأنابيب بمقاومتها الممتازة لدرجات الحرارة العالية والمواد الكيميائية، مما يجعلها مناسبة لمجموعة واسعة من التطبيقات بما في ذلك أنظمة المياه الساخنة والباردة. تصنع أنابيب PP-R لدينا بدقة لضمان أداء عالٍ، ومتانة، وموثوقية. تعد شركة إيليت بايب من بين الأفضل والأكثر موثوقية في العراق، حيث نقدم أنابيب PP-R التي تفي بمعايير الجودة الصارمة. للحصول على معلومات مفصلة حول أنابيب PP-R ومنتجاتنا الأخرى، تفضل بزيارة elitepipeiraq.com.
What i do not realize is in fact how you are no longer actually much more wellfavored than you might be right now Youre very intelligent You recognize thus considerably in relation to this topic made me in my view believe it from numerous numerous angles Its like men and women are not fascinated until it is one thing to do with Lady gaga Your own stuffs excellent All the time handle it up
Henof For the reason that the admin of this site is working, no uncertainty very quickly it will be renowned, due to its quality contents.
Pink Withney This is really interesting, You’re a very skilled blogger. I’ve joined your feed and look forward to seeking more of your magnificent post. Also, I’ve shared your site in my social networks!
Touch to Unlock You’re so awesome! I don’t believe I have read a single thing like that before. So great to find someone with some original thoughts on this topic. Really.. thank you for starting this up. This website is something that is needed on the internet, someone with a little originality!
Thank you for your sharing. I am worried that I lack creative ideas. It is your article that makes me full of hope. Thank you. But, I have a question, can you help me?
Wow amazing blog layout How long have you been blogging for you made blogging look easy The overall look of your web site is magnificent as well as the content
Just wish to say your article is as surprising The clearness in your post is just cool and i could assume youre an expert on this subject Fine with your permission allow me to grab your RSS feed to keep updated with forthcoming post Thanks a million and please keep up the enjoyable work
of course like your website but you have to check the spelling on several of your posts A number of them are rife with spelling issues and I in finding it very troublesome to inform the reality on the other hand I will certainly come back again
Blue Techker I really like reading through a post that can make men and women think. Also, thank you for allowing me to comment!
Jinx Manga Pretty! This has been a really wonderful post. Many thanks for providing these details.
Tech Learner Pretty! This has been a really wonderful post. Many thanks for providing these details.
FinTechZoomUs This is my first time pay a quick visit at here and i am really happy to read everthing at one place